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Weekend Estimates & Analysis: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker On Course for $ 185-195M Domestic Launch Ahead of Holiday Corridor – Boxoffice Pro, Boxofficepro.com

Weekend Estimates & Analysis: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker On Course for $ 185-195M Domestic Launch Ahead of Holiday Corridor – Boxoffice Pro, Boxofficepro.com


Saturday Update:

Disney’s conclusion. to the latest generation of theStar Warssaga is off to a strong domestic start with studio confirmation thatThe Rise of Skywalkerbowed to $ 99 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $ million preview earnings. We’re now shortening our projection window to between $ million and $ 195 million for opening weekend, remaining within the target of pre-release forecasts and well ahead of Disney’s $ 170 million expectation.

************ Rise

‘s first day earnings mark the second highest opening day of 01575879, trailing onlyAvengers: Endgame’s $ (********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 5 million eight months ago. This is also represents the third highest single day take in December history, behindThe Force Awakens’record (and, then, all-time record) $ 119. 1 million andThe Last Jedi’s $ (.7 million.) ****************

For further comparison,SkywalkerbestedRogue One‘s $ 71. 1 million first day by 27 percent and registered the sixth best opening day in history (regardless of month), just behindHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2($. 1 million) and ahead of (Avengers: Age of Ultron) **************** ($****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (4 million).

For the weekend, a take around $ (million would represent the) th highest of all-time (ahead ofIncredibles 2(‘s $) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 7 million), while a finish on the higher end of expectations around $ 195 million would additionally bestAge of Ultron($ 195. 3 million) and this yearThe Lion King (remake) $ (**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 8 million) for an eighth place all-time marker .

Again, though, comparisons of holiday releases to summer releases can be misleading. Among December releases, onlyForce Awakens($ 248 million) andLast Jedi($ 220 million) will have debuted to higher three-day weekends, and multipliers are typically much higher than they are during other times of year – even for mega-openers like theStar Warsfranchise.

The next closest December weekend debuts areRogue One($************************************************************************************************************************************** (1 million) andThe Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey($

************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ 6 million. ****************

Related Coverage:

Weekend Forecast: What to Expect fromStar Wars: The Rise of Skywalkers Domestic Run

It’s worth noting thatSkywalkerpulled a slightly lower share of its Friday proper earnings thanLast Jedidid. The former earned 55. 6 percent of its first day gross after Thursday night previews, while the latter earned 59 percent. That’s a marginal difference, and could very well be made up for by what’s expected to be a stronger Sunday hold forSkywalker (due to) percent of schools being out on Monday (as well as many adults / parents beginning their holiday vacation).

Encouragingly, theverified audience scoreon Rotten Tomatoes remains at 86 percent as of Saturday morning – indicating healthy initial word of mouth from audiences in opposition to the mixed reception from industry critics.

For more breakdowns on what this opening day figure could mean for opening weekend and long play scenarios,check out our previous weekend forecast here. Currently, the film is on pace to meet a trajectory in the middle of scenarios # 3 and # 4 from that report.

Disney hasn’t yet provided a global update for the film, though it is expected we’ll get a more comprehensive report on Sunday morning. Earlier this week, industry expectations had called for a global opening weekend between $ (million and $) million.

Meanwhile,

Jumanji: The Next Leveladded $ 7.1 million yesterday despite the new competition and loss of premium format screens. With $ 83. 9 million in the domestic bank through eight days, the sequel will cross $ million stateside this weekend. Sony projects a $ 86 million sophomore frame, but we’re expecting a higher result with the holiday corridor in full effect.

As for the remaining openers,

Cats

clawed its way to $ 2. million on opening day Friday, while

Bombshellexpanded into semi-wide release at 1, 500 locations with an estimated $ 1. million yesterday. Weekend projections for both are in the chart below.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, DEC. – SUN, DEC.

WIDE (******************************************** ( )

************

TITLE****************WEEKEND****************LOCATIONS**************** AVG.TOTAL**************** WKS.DIST.

******************

Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker (************************************ $ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 12, (************************************ – (************************************ 4, (************************************ – (************************************ $ (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, $ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 12, (************************************ 1) ************************************* (************************************** (Disney) *****************************************

********************** (2)

Jumanji: The Next Level (************************************ $ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************,– (%) 4, 2270****************************$ 6, (************************************ $ (***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ********************************************************************************, 2) ************************************** (**************************************** (Sony Pictures) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (3) Frozen II

$ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ,– (%) ************************************ 3,

$ (*****************************************************************************************************************************************, 833, (************************************** 5) ************************************* (************************************** (Disney) *****************************************

********************** (4) Cats $ 8, (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 06

– (************************************ 3, – $ 2, (************************************$ 8, (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 061) ************************************* (************************************** (Universal Pictures************************** (********************************

********************** (5) Knives Out

$ 6, (**************************************************************************************************************************,– (%) ************************************ 2, 564$ 2, 564$ (***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, **********************************************************************,4**************************** (**************************** Lionsgate ****************************************

********************** (6) Bombshell******************************$ 5, (**************************************************************************************************************************,

********************************************** (%) ************************************** 1, ******************************************** () **************************************$ 3, (************************************$ 5, (************************************************************************, 2) ************************************** (**************************** Lionsgate ****************************************

********************** (7) Richard Jewell

$ 2, (**********************************************************************************, (************************************** – 43%2, 0****************************$ 1,$ 9, 811, (************************************ 2) ************************************** (**************************************** (Warner Bros.) *****************************************

********************** (8) Queen & Slim $ 2, (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 06

– (%) ************************************** 1, 078
$ 1, $ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, (****************************************************************************************, 4**************************** (************************************** (Universal Pictures************************** (********************************

********************** (9) Ford v. Ferrari$ 1, 913, (************************************** – (%) 1,

$ 1,$ (***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ,6**************************** (**************************************** (th Century Fox) *****************************************

********************** (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ Black Christmas

$ 1, (**********************************************************************************, (************************************** – (%) 2, (************************************** 0**************************** $ (**************************************$ 7, (**********************************************************************************************************************************************************, 6512) ************************************** (************************************** (Universal Pictures************************** (********************************

********************** (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood$ 1, (**************************************************************************************************************************,– (%) 1,

$ 984$ 54, 728, 525) ************************************* (**************************************** (Sony Pictures) **************************************** (********************************

****************************

(1) **************************************
$ 3,
– 1462
– 1331
LIMITED 112 – ()

************

TITLE****************WEEKEND****************LOCATIONS**************** AVG.TOTAL**************** WKS.DIST.

******************

Dark Waters$ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************, *************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – (%) ******************************************************************************************************************** – (************************************* $ (************************************** $ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, (********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, (************************************ 5) ************************************* (************************************** (Focus Features) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (2) A Hidden Life (************************************ $ (*******************************************************************************************************************************************************, 000

******************************************************************************************************************** (%) ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** $ 2,$ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************, ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** 2) ************************************** (************************************** (Fox Searchlight) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (3) (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (Bridges) $ 220, 10

– (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************% (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – 1183$ (************************************* $ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 1295) ************************************* (************************************** STX Entertainment (************************************

********************** (4) Jojo Rabbit $ 200, – (%) ************************************************************************************************************************************************ () ************************************** – $ $ (*******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, , (************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************** (Fox Searchlight) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (5) Playing with Fire (************************************ $ 200, – 70%

******************************************************************************************************************************************– 1094$ (************************************ $ (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, (**************************************************************************************, **************************** 7**************************** (**************************************** Paramount Pictures (************************************

********************** (6) Midway****************************** $ 185,

– 79%

******************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – 1136$$ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, (************************************************************, ********************************************************************************************************************** 7**************************** (**************************** Lionsgate ****************************************

********************** (7) Last Christmas

$ (*******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************,– 65%**************************************************************************************************************************************** – (************************************** $ 616

$ , (****************************************************************************,

7**************************** (************************************** (Universal Pictures************************** (********************************

********************** (8) Joker (************************************ $ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************,

– 67%– (************************************** $$ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************, ,**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

(**************************************** (Warner Bros.) *****************************************

********************** (9) Harriet****************************** $ 130, (************************************ – 71%

$ (************************************** $ 44, (**********************************************************************************************************************************************************,

8**************************** (************************************** (Focus Features) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (************************************ $ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – (%) ************************************ ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

$$ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, , 695******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************** (Disney) *****************************************

********************** (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Abominable****************************** $ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (%) ************************************ ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

$ (**************************************** $ (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, 608,************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ (************************************** (Universal Pictures************************** (********************************

********************** (********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Terminator: Dark Fate

$ 52, (************************************ – 65%******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – $$ 62, 212, 0************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** () ************************************** 8**************************** (************************************** (Paramount) *****************************************

****************************

(1) **************************************

PLATFORM (1 – 101

************

TITLE****************WEEKEND****************LOCATIONS**************** AVG.TOTAL**************** WKS.DIST.

******************

Playmobil: The Movie$ , 10– (%) **************************************– 1392$ 1, 212$ 1, 155, ************************** 3**************************** (************************************** STX Entertainment (************************************

********************** (2) Countdown (************************************ $ (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, **************************** – (%) ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ – 68

$ 878$ (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, , 9**************************** (************************************** STX Entertainment (************************************

********************** (3) No Safe Spaces (************************************ $ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************,

– (%) ************************************* ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************– (************************************** $$ 1, 143, () ************************************** 9**************************** (************************************** (Atlas Distribution) **************************************** (********************************

********************** (4)

En Brazos de un Asesino $ 8, () ************************************** – (%) ************************************* ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (************************************ –$ **************************** $ 433, 3**************************** (************************************ (Lionsgate / Pantelion Films) **************************************** (********************************

**************************** (******************************************

************ yUpdate:Disney reports this morning thatStar Wars: The Rise of Skywalkerposted a strong $ 45 million debut from Thursday’s domestic shows beginning at 5pm. That gives it the fifth best preview start in history, toppingAvengers: Infinity War(‘s $) ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (million last year.) ******************

Related Coverage:

Weekend Forecast: What to Expect fromStar Wars: The Rise of Skywalkers Domestic Run

For further perspective, this marks just an The percent decline fromThe Last Jedi’s $ 051 million Thursday night start two years ago this month – an encouraging signal that many fans are returning to see how the saga closes out despite(TLJ) ‘s divisive word of mouth and(TROS) ‘own mixed critical reviews. Disney notes that the latter’s verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes sits at an encouraging 91 percent as of Friday morning.

Given the proximity to Christmas in five days, it remains to be seen exactly how the weekend and weeks ahead will play out from here, but this result does keep the upper-end of pre-release forecasts on the table for now.

For more breakdowns on what this preview figure could mean for opening weekend and long play scenarios,

check out our previous weekend forecast here.

Internationally,Rise of Skywalkeris open in (markets – including openings on Thursday. The two-day overseas cume stands at $ 60 .1 million.

(1) **************************************
******************************

********************************************

Territories

(************************************

GBO

(********************************

****************

****************************************************************

UK

(************************************

$ 8.3M

****************************

Germany

(************************************

$ 7.2M

****************************

France

(************************************

$ 5.3M

****************************

Australia

(************************************

$ 4.3M

****************************

China

(************************************

$ 3.6M

****************************

Mexico

(************************************

$ 2.4M (********************************

****************

Brazil

(************************************

$ 2.2M (********************************

****************

Italy

(************************************

$ 2.1M

****************************

Sweden

(************************************

$ 2.0M

****************************

Norway

(************************************

$ 1.5M

****************************

Russia

(************************************

$ 1.4M

****************************

Denmark

(************************************

$ 1.3M

****************************

Other

(************************************

$ 5M (********************************

****************

****************************

****************

Total

(************************************

$ 061. 1M

****************************************

Meanwhile, domestically,Catsclawed its way to $ (K from 2, last night, while(Bombshell) ******************* pulled $******************************************************************************************************************************** (K from an estimated 1,theaters.

More updates to come throughout the weekend…    (********************************************* (************************************************Brave BrowserRead More (**************************************

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