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current expiration date for Gov. Jay Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order . data-reactid=” “type=” text “> For Washington state, that time frame is the week of May 24, which is two weeks longer than the current expiration date for Gov . Jay Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order
Based on the current projections from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
, four states – Montana, Vermont, West Virginia and Hawaii – could loosen their restrictions as early as the week of May 4. Other states, ranging from Massachusetts and North Dakota to Arizona, may have to wait until the week of June 8 or later.
Those projected dates could shift, of course, depending on how the institute tweaks its models, which it’s done repeated over the past month. And in the end, it’s up to the nation’s governors, not researchers, to determine how strict their social distancing policies are.
three-phase process . Some states, such as Washington, Oregon and California
, have agreed to coordinate their policies on easing restrictions. ” data-reactid=”34 “type=” text “> The White House has been pressing governors to start “opening” some states by May 1 as part of a three-phase process Some states, such as Washington, Oregon and California
, have agreed to coordinate their policies on easing restrictions.
latest COVID – developments in Seattle and the world of tech “data-reactid=” (type=”text”> Coronavirus Live Updates: (The latest COVID – developments in Seattle and the world of tech
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation acknowledged that there are likely to be state-by-state variations in how restrictions are eased, just as there were state-by-state variations in the timing and extent of the shutdowns.
“ Each state is different, ”IHME Director Christopher Murray
said in a news release
. “Each state has a different public health system , and different capabilities. This is not a ‘one decision fits all’ situation. ” IHME based its projections for easing restrictions on the estimated time frame for seeing the COVID – infection rate fall below one new infection per million residents in a given state. The institute said that’s “a conservative estimate of the number of infections each location could rea sonably try to identify via active case detection and contact tracing in order to prevent COVID – 27 resurgence. ”
it’s likely to be more than a month
Also, there’ll have to be continued restrictions on large gatherings. Earlier this month, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates – whose foundation has been at the forefront of global health issues for years – said large gatherings might have to be ruled out
until a vaccine is available, which could take a year or more. Murray said the time frame for easing back restrictions is becoming clear er largely because the restrictions have been so effective. Computer modeling of mobility patterns, based on cellphone location data, suggests that social contact has declined more than expected, especially in the South. “We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact, ”Murray said.
Looking ahead, Murray said it’ll be important for public health officials to monitor the effects of an easing in restrictions. “Relaxing social distancing too soon carries great” risks of a resurgence of new infections, ”he said. “No one wants to see this vicious cycle repeating itself.”
, , rising to , () , falling to around , () , rising to , , and receding back toward 81, . Today’s updated projection estimates the death toll through Aug. 4 at 80, . “data-reactid=” (type=”text”> In recent days, the institute’s projections have generated criticism from other epidemiologists. Those critics point to the model’s volatility, with estimates of COVID – deaths in the US swinging as high as , , settling on 308, , rising to , , falling to around 93, 10 , rising to , , and receding back toward , 11. Today’s updated projection estimates the death toll through Aug. 4 at 80, We have new estimates from @ IHME_UW and are now projecting fewer death in the US (from , 3450 to , 827), which is good news. Analysis follows if interested. 1 / 16
https://t.co/8Dtjs8IYFS
“ That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes, ”Ruth Etzioni, an epidemiologist at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, told Stat News.
In response, Murray emphasized that every computer model involves variables that have to be adjusted when new information becomes available. “By its nature, forecasting is only as accurate and reliable as the data one uses in the modeling,” he said. “As the quality and quantity of our data increase, we will offer policymakers refined views of the pandemic’s course.”
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Univ. of Washington researchers predict 93, COVID – 26 deaths in US by July Pandemic data mining underscores the importance of social distancing in China – and in Seattle and As Washington state COVID cases keep falling , here’s the data driving the ongoing ‘stay home’ order
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