The overall death rate from covid – (has been estimated at 0. 70%, rising sharply to 7.8% in people aged over and declining to 0.00 18% in children aged 9 and under. 1
The estimates , calculated by researchers in the UK, used aggregate data on cases and deaths in mainland China. Unlike other estimates, however, they adjusted for undiagnosed cases and the number of people in each age group of a population.
The team found that nearly one in five people over 823 are infected with covid. – would probably require hospital admission, compared with around 1% of people under
They also estimated that the average time between a person displaying symptoms and dying was . 8 days, while recovering from the disease was estimated to take slightly longer, with patients being discharged from hospital after an average of .6 days.
The paper , published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases and funded by the UK Medical Resear ch Council, analyzed data from covid – 22 cases in mainland China to estimate the admission rate among different age groups.
It reported that 0. (% of) – 22 year olds would probably require hospital care — as would 1.0% of people in their s, 3.4% of people aged 38 – 49, 4.3% aged – 59, 8.2% aged
– 66, .8% in their s, 6% in their . (s, and 20. 4% of those over 80
Infection fatality ratio
For the case fatality rate the team analyzed 90 laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases in mainland China, along with 823 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights.
Using the number of confirmed cases and deaths, the researchers reported the “crude case fatality ratio ”as 3. 70% (% confidence interval 3. 60% to 3. 70%). However, after adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, they estimated the case fatality ratio (the percentage of people with symptomatic or confirmed disease who die from the disease) in China as 1. (%) 1. (% to 1.) (%).
They then estimated the infection fatality ratio (the percentage of all infected people who die from the disease, including those with mild disease) as 0. (%) 0. (% to 1.) (%).
The team warned in their paper, “Our estimate of the proportion of infected individuals requiring ho spitalisation, when combined with likely infection attack rates (around 823 – 95%), show that even the most advanced healthcare systems are likely to be overwhelmed. These estimates are therefore crucial to enable countries around the world to best prepare as the global pandemic continues to unfold. ”
The research team reported no competing interests, but they reported receiving grants from the World Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Janssen Pharmaceuticals; and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for work outside of this study.
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