MLB playoffs: Which teams have the clearest path to a World Series title? – USA TODAY, USA Today

There’s one particularly punitive but unavoidable truth when it comes to Major League Baseball’s meandering postseason.

The best team often does not win the World Series.

Baseball’s cosmic forces alone are often enough to prevent the most talented team from winning a championship in a game where, unlike football, basketball and many others, sheer physical superiority can make the difference. Throw in tangible factors like health, a hot pitcher or cold hitter or a managerial misfire, and 100 – plus wins can go by the wayside in a hurry .

It also doesn’t hurt to have the clearest path to glory.

As baseball’s playoffs kick into high gear with four Division Series matchups beginning Thursday and Friday, USA TODAY Sports ranks the remaining eight playoff teams based on their chances to capture the World Series, factoring in talent, of course, but also how the playoff road may unfold before them:

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1. Astros

Oh, you expected something different?

As teams such as the Nationals and Dodgers kept their Division Series pitching plans largely under wraps, the Astros merely tacked on a couple lines at the end of a press release that surprised no one.

Game 1: Justin Verlander.

Game 2: Gerrit Cole.

Game 3: Zack Greinke.

Left unsaid is that there may not be a Game 4 in their matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays, who can’t start ace and beloved adopted Houston son Charlie Morton until Game 3 after he won Wednesday’s wild card game. Beyond that, the Astros own every metric you could possibly want entering October: They strike out more batters than anyone. Their batters strike out less than any others. They lead the major leagues in on-base and slugging percentage (and, thus, OPS).

Sometimes the obvious call is the right one.

2. Dodgers

Still by far the class of the NL but facing a rare Division Series challenge in a Nationals team that can match up in starting pitching like no other foe in their back-to-back runs to the NL pennant. These Dodgers are arguably deeper than last year squad, but with better defined and more consistent roles, which is what happens when Cody Bellinger blossoms into the NL MVP favorite.

Can they finish off Washington in less than five games? If so, it’s unlikely anyone else can touch them.

3. Cardinals

Ranked this high solely becauseno pitcher has been as dominant of late than Jack Flaherty, who is on a two-month, 12 – start run in which he’s posted a 0. 77 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 82 innings.

Flaherty will start Game 2 and a potential Game 5 in the Division Series against Atlanta. Should the Cardinals somehow topple the Braves in four or fewer games, well, the Dodgers or Nationals might see him three times in the NLCS.

4. Twins

Minnesota out-homered the Yankees by aBombaor two this season and didn’t have the benefit of home games in the Bronx bandbox. Their pitchers also suppress home runs better than any club in the AL field (1.2 per nine innings, with the Yankees at 1.5) and will be well-prepared by the Twins’ coaching and advance staff to attack Yankee hitters.

Minnesota carries all the annoyance of ancient history of past teams’ failures against the Yankees, but none of the burden of expectations their opponents wear.

Now, how to beat the Astros? Good question.

5. Yankees

Yeah, the Bombers are still pretty good, particularly with so much power at the plate and in the bullpen. But with so many questions surrounding their starting pitchers, the pitching load may get too lopsided as the postseason progresses.

This 28 th championship would certainly be earned: The Yankees may have to topple teams that won 101, 107 and 106 Games.

6). Nationals

Perhaps they can’t be stopped. Washington has won nine in a row – including its stirring wild-card game triumph – and is on a 75 – 38 run since its infamous 19 – 31 start.

This playoff scenario – a Division Series against the Dodgers – is exactly why general manager Mike Rizzo signed Max Scherzer, re-signed Stephen Strasburg and added Patrick Corbin this past offseason. Surviving the wild card, the Dodgers, the NLCS and perhaps the Astros may be too much to ask. But their odds will increase significantly if Strasburg can come back and start Game 2 two days after pitching in relief. That lines up their Big Three to pitch four of five NLDS games – which can’t please the Dodgers.

7. Braves

Certainly, Atlanta can bash its way to a pennant, and beyond. But while signing Dallas Keuchel was a shrewd and crucial move to lock down the NL East, he runs into a few too many bats to follow him through a postseason.

Keuchel gave up 9.2 hits per nine innings over his past two seasons, but he’ll get the Game 1 NLDS start against St. Louis Louis. Meanwhile, staff ace and rookie Mike Soroka’s curious home-road splits (a 4. 14 ERA at SunTrust Park, 1. 55 elsewhere) compel the Braves to start him Game 3 in St.

Perhaps Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Josh Donaldson will make us look silly. But this suboptimal pitching scenario will be tough to overcome.

8. Rays

Tampa Bay bested its small-market brother in the wild card game, but there are no rings for MLB’s Dollar Store champions. Oh, the Rays can fire pure stuff at the Astros —Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Morton can shut anyone down, any day, and the Astros know this well. Snell, however, did not top 62 pitches in three starts after returning from elbow surgery and figures to hand off early to Tampa Bay’s bullpen in Game 2.

It’s on the offensive end where the Rays figure to really struggle in the ALDS. And even if they survive Houston, the road does not get much easier from there.