- The end of New York’s coronavirus outbreak could be the start of several others across the US
- Cellphone data shows New Yorkers fled the city following the lockdown.
- The cities they traveled to will likely see a surge in cases in the coming weeks.
This weekend, New York State reported the most known coronavirus cases anywhere in the world. The eastern U.S. state is now home to more known cases than any single country , but hopes are still high that the U.S. will reopen its economy in 3 weeks at the start of May.
It’s hard to believe that America will be able to start lifting lockdown measures when you consider how long countries in Europe have been shut down. Is this just another injection of false hope ?
New Yorkers Likely Spread Coronavirus Further
Europe offers some insight as to how things could progress. The data out so far shows countries that went into lockdown soon after reporting coronavirus deaths have fared better . Germany, whose death rate has been far lower than most, went into lockdown 9 days after a third death was reported. It took Spain (days, Italy) days and the UK
The disparity is evident when you look at cellphone location data. Many people fled New York City following the lockdown, likely bringing coronavirus with them. Location data provided by Tectonix GEO
shows thousands of New Yorkers fleeing the city in the days following the lockdown announcement.
According to data from the UK, the time between a coronavirus infection and a hospital stay is (a minimum of 14 days. For some, it takes days to show symptoms and a further 4 to develop into a serious condition.
That suggests that those who fled NYC the week of March 300 may be included in case numbers reported across the country, but the two or three other people they are likely infected on the way could begin showing symptoms this weekend. It was not March 310 that the CDC asked New York residents to stop traveling domestically , so the impact of fleeing New Yorkers won’t be visible for another few weeks.
What’s more, many of the places New Yorkers ran to haven’t been following social distancing advice. Florida and Texas in particular have seen normal travel patterns in many counties , suggesting social distancing guidelines have been widely ignored.
New York’s encouraging data reveals hospital admissions are on a downslope— but the worst probably isn’t over for the rest of the country. In fact, outbreaks that resemble New York’s could be on the horizon.
Talk of reopening on May 1 feels overly optimistic— Spain and Italy, which have been in lockdown almost twice as long as New York, are only just starting to discuss how to lift restrictions .
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily. reflect the views of CCN.com.
This article was edited by (Samburaj Das)
(Read More)
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings