Back for his 26 th season in The Post’s Bettor’s Guide, Dave Blezow is in the midst of defending a Best Bet title and overall co-championship. Here are his Week 3 NFL picks.
Point-spread movements in the NFL are telling. A game-day surge in one team’s direction indicates sharp bettors spotted value and jumped in. This week, the non-movement of the Giants-Buccaneers line could be just as telling.
On Monday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were favored by 6¹ / ₂ points over the 0-2, Eli Manning Giants. On Tuesday, the New York Giantsbenched Manning for Daniel Jones. The line did not change on the news, and hasn’t budged all week to this point. The Giants went from a two-time Super Bowl MVP to a rookie, and as yet nobody – the public or sharps – seems to believe they have any worse chance in this game.
From a purely football standpoint, the view here is the Giants will be energized by the switch. Jones ’mobility will change the equations on all of the plays the team runs. Saquon Barkley figures to be even more dangerous now that the defense has to keep tabs on the quarterback.
Some are worried about Jones going up against “Todd Bowles ‘defense.” The ex-Jets head coach turned Bucs defensive coordinator has righted a unit that was atrocious last year, but that doesn’t mean he’s reprised the’ (Bears.)
The biggest problem for the Giants has been their own defense, but consider the opposition. Since the start of the 2017 season, Jameis Winston is 7- 17 as a starter, with four games of at least three interceptions. Not counting on him to cover a near-touchdown spread.
The pick:Giants, 6¹ / ₂.
All lines are from Friday
New York Jets ( 23) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:The total on this game is 43 ¹ / ₂, so the score that comes closest to both the spread and the total is Patriots 34, Jets 10. That seems quite plausible, and if you think there’s no way the Patriots get only 34 and no way the Jets even get 10, then you have your pick. But the Jets have some weapons and are hitting hard, if not always smart. And there are other factors at play, including the Patriots looking at a potential 3-0 showdown at Buffalo next week. As much as Bill Belichick hates the Jets, would he take unnecessary risks to play to the number?
Denver Broncos ( 7¹ / ₂) over GREEN BAY PACKERS:Denver is off to an 0-2 start, but has a veteran quarterback in Joe Flacco, a few good runners and some playmakers on defense. Green Bay is 2-0 and in the midst of a three-game homestand. This could be a bit of a trap between the Vikings and Eagles.
Detroit Lions ( 6) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES:Was very down on Detroit coming into the season, and still not sure what to think after a 1-0-1 start. The Eagles have looked sluggish thus far and figure to me more in survival mode than hunting for a blowout.
Baltimore Ravens ( 6) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:Lamar Jackson is 8-1 as the Ravens’ starter, and the loss was a cover in a three-point loss at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are still explosive (see their 28 – point second quarter versus the Raiders last week), but are still without Tyreek Hill, so a shootout score reasonably could fall under this spread.
Cincinnati Bengals ( 6) over BUFFALO BILLS:Could be a letdown spot for the Bills after their comeback win over the Jets and easy win over the Giants, especially with the Patriots up next week. The Bengals have covered eight of their past 10 on the road.
Atlanta Falcons ( 1¹ / ₂) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:Like the Bills, Chiefs and 49 ers, the Colts are playing their first home game of the season in Week 3. Since 2003, those home teams have failed to cover 71 .8 percent of the time, according to Bet Labs Sports. Sharps bet this number down from 3, so there’s a lot of smart money on Atlanta’s side here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-9) over Oakland Raiders:Have missed badly on the Raiders’ win over the Broncos and loss to the Chiefs, and usually get burned when I go against the Vikings at home. So this is a tricky spot, but am concerned how the Raiders will do against a top defense if they could manage just 10 points at home versus Kansas City. )
DALLAS COWBOYS (- ¹ / ₂) over Miami Dolphins:Have never given more than three touchdowns in an NFL game, but the Dolphins barely qualify as an NFL team after losing their first two games by a combined 102 – 10 and trading some of their top remaining players. The Cowboys seem to be a team that would relish covering this spread.
Carolina Panthers ( 2¹ / ₂) over ARIZONA CARDINALS:This line flipped on Thursday afternoon on the expectation Cam Newton will not play. But the likely switch to Kyle Allen, a hometown Scottsdale, Ariz., Kid, actually could help the Carolina offense. Newton was ailing and almost zombie-like last week.
New Orleans Saints ( 4) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:Don’t sell the combo of Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill short. And remember, the Saints were about to take a 10 – 3 lead over the Rams before getting hosed (again!) By the refs. Loving anything above a field goal here.
Houston Texans ( 3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS:Worried the Chargers are way better than they have shown so far, but without Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry, their arsenal is limited. The Texans on paper have more firepower, though they’ve outscored the Chargers by just one point thus far (41 – 40).
Pittsburgh Steelers ( 6¹ / ₂) over SAN FRANCISCO 49 ERS:Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003, so it’s hard to believe they’re headed for 4 – 12 or 3 – 13, even without Ben Roethlisberger. Expecting the full team to rally around new QB Mason Rudolph here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS ( 3) over Los Angeles Rams:Thinking back to a Sunday nighter the Rams played in Chicago last year, when Jared Goff threw four interceptions in a 15 – 6 loss to the Bears. This strikes as a spot where Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and the Dawg Pound electricity could combine to overwhelm the Rams.
Monday
WASHINGTON REDSKINS ( 4) over Chicago Bears:Have been burned backing the Redskins many times, but don’t see anything to justify taking the Bears as a road favorite of more than a field goal when they’ve scored 19 points in two games.
Best bets:Browns, Saints, Steelers.
Last week:10 – 6 overall, 3-0 Best Bets . *****
Lock of the week:Browns (Locks 1-1 in 2019.
Thursday:Titans.
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