NEW YORK— Friday night, theMinnesota Twins opened the 2019 postseason with a thud.Their bullpen melted down in a Game 1 loss to the Yankees in the Bronx (NYY 10, MIN 4). The Twins are now down 0-1 in the best-of-five series.
“Tonight overall, they played well and got the win,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said following the Game 1 loss. “But our team, as a whole — I mentioned our bullpen guys a few minutes ago — our team as a whole has bounced back exceptionally well all year long. Regardless of what happens … guys will be just getting changed and getting ready for tomorrow.”
Historically, teams that fall behind 0-1 in a best-of-five series come back to win only 29 percent of the time. Teams that fall behind 0-2 only come back 17 percent of the time, which is surprisingly high to me, but still is not good. Minnesota doesn’t want to go home to Target Field for Game 3 having to win three straight games to advance.
Here are four things the Twins can do in Game 2 on Saturday afternoon (GameTracker) to even the ALDS at a game apiece, and return home to begin a best-of-three series with homefield advantage.
1. Keep hitting homers
It sounds obvious, I know, but the prevailing narrative seems to be that relying on home runs can be detrimental in October. You can’t hit homers against postseason pitching, you need to play small ball, things like that. It’s not true. Scoring goes down in the postseason, sure, but home run rates remain unchanged. Homers aremorevaluable in October.
The Twins set a newMLBrecord with 307 home runs during the regular season and they did out-homer the Yankees 3-2 in Game 1. The problem? All three were solo homers. Yankees pitchers had only one 1-2-3 inning on Friday, but Minnesota went 2 for 17 with a walk with runners on base. They had traffic, just no extended rallies.
“When you step out on the field and watch our team [and] the Yankees, there’s a lot of big strong guys out there. I would expect at least a few balls to be hit over the fence at some point,” Baldelli said. “We had some good swings. We had our moments. Just by chance, there was no one on base when we popped a few balls over the fence.”
The Yankees allowed 248 home runs during the regular season, seventh most in baseball, and Game 2 starter Masahiro Tanakahas given up 88 home runs since 2017, the fifth most in baseball. Also, Yankee Stadium is an extreme home run ballpark. The stars are aligned for the Twins offense to go yard in Game 2. Hitting homers is what the Twins do, and they have to keep doing it.
2. Be aggressive with Duffey, Rogers, and Romo
Five Twins relievers combined to allow seven runs in four innings in Game 2. RightiesZack Littell(two runs, zero outs),Cody Stashak(two runs, three outs), andKyle Gibson(three runs, three outs) all had poor outings. Minnesota’s relief crew was unable to hold the Yankees down and give the offense a chance to get back into the game.
The silver lining:Sergio RomoandTaylor Rogersdid not pitch. The Twins have Romo, their righty specialist setup man, ready to go againstAaron Judge,Giancarlo Stanton,Gary Sanchez, et al. Rogers pitched more than one inning in 17 of his 60 regular season appearances, including two full innings nine times. A six-out save has to be on the table in Game 2.
“We don’t generally commit to anything early, but I think there’s a chance that we end up running some of our guys that have pitched very late in the game (in Game 2),” Baldelli said. “We could run them out there, probably still reasonably late in the game, but maybe push them up a little bit. … Maybe it’s even more likely that they get out there for more extended outings.”
In addition to Romo and Rogers, the Twins should also lean on right-handerTyler Duffey. Duffey threw 25 pitches in Game 1 and allowed the go-ahead double toGleyber Torres…
… but Torres deserves credit more than Duffey deserves blame. He worked a great at-bat and hit a hard-hit grounder offMiguel Sano’sglove at third base. Duffey was great in the regular season and especially against righties: .205/.268/.333 with a 42.2 percent strikeout rate. The Yankees have seven righties in their Game 2 lineup:
Duffey and Romo are big time weapons against righties and the Yankees only have two lefties in their lineup Saturday. Baldelli should be very aggressive with them in Game 2 — is it too much to ask that Duffey and Romo cover nine outs combined? — with Rogers in the bank for a two-inning save. In what is essentially a must-win game, there’s no reason to hold back on these three.
3. Get the game of Dobnak’s life
The Twins will start rookie rightyRandy Dobnak, notJake Odorizzi, in Game 2. Dobnak was pitching in an independent league as recently as 2017 and,as his Twitter bio will tell you, he makes extra money in the offseason as an Uber driver (4.99 rating!). He had to leave the team briefly in September to get married — Dobnak and his wife, Aerial, picked their wedding date two years ago not expecting him to be in the big leagues,as Dane Mizutani of theSt. Paul Pioneer Press writes.
“I had not been nervous pitching yet, and I think I was a little bit nervous on the wedding day,” Dobnak told Mizutani. “Just a little bit.”
Minnesota is giving the ball to Dobnak in Game 2, not the veteran Odorizzi, because Dobnak is a sinkerballer who tends to keep the ball on the ground, which is an obvious plus in homer-happy Yankee Stadium. His 52.9 percent ground ball rate was well above the 42.9 percent league average and especially so compared to the fly ball prone Odorizzi (35 percent grounders).
“I think in this ballpark, the guy that throws the ball, keeps it on the ground pretty well was a good guy to look to,” Baldelli said. “Dob’s been throwing the ball great for us, so I thought it made sense.”
Dobnak allowed two earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his final three regular season starts, though two were against the lowlyTigersandRoyals. Needless to say, ALDS Game 2 will be the biggest test of his career. Dobnak has the element of surprise on his side — he has never faced anyone in New York’s lineup — but of course the Yankees will prepare as much as possible.
“I think as a hitter you always prefer to have some experience against a guy,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday. “Fortunately, now you can get a lot of information on guys and see video and watch how he attacks, and how he attacks like hitters and things like that. So our guys are able to get a good idea of what they’re walking into, but there’s no substitute for experience.”
Simply put, the Twins will likely need Dobnak to pitch the game of his life to help the team even the series 1-1, and he’ll have to do it against a great lineup in a difficult ballpark. At the very least, Dobnak has to get them through four innings tied (or preferably with a lead) before Duffey, Romo, and Rogers come into play.
“Randy doesn’t complicate things,” Baldelli said prior to Game 2. “We wouldn’t want him to change anything (with his preparation). There’s a lot going on here. We’ve got a playoff game. We have media sessions. We have all kinds of stuff. This is a guy that he shuts all that out really well.”
4. Replace Arraez with Schoop
I can already tell you this willnothappen. The Twins announced their Game 2 lineup Saturday afternoon andLuis Arraezis playing second base, notJonathan Schoop.
Arraez undeniably had a better season than Schoop. He authored a .334/.399/.439 batting line with more walks (36) than strikeouts (29) in 266 plate appearances, and he played four different positions. Schoop hit .256/.304/.473 and is limited to second base. It is clear Arraez belongs in the lineup over Schoop.
Here’s the thing though: Arraez is not healthy. He suffered a Grade 1 ankle sprain in the final series of the regular season and was clearly hobbled in Game 1. He didn’t run well down the line on his inning-ending double play in the second inning, and he looked tentative in the field, especially around the bag on double play pivots. It’s understandable; a Grade 1 ankle sprain isn’t insignificant.
“He’s coming off of this injury, and the ball certainly found him many times yesterday. He was involved in a lot of different plays,” Baldelli said Saturday. “I thought he actually ran well. You can certainly see in a very minor way that it’s certainly not at a point where he’s at an absolute 100 percent.”
With Arraez hobbled and Dobnak being a ground ball pitcher who relies on his infield defense, putting Schoop at second base is the smart play for me. Heck, even when healthy, Arraez posted minus-8 defensive runs saved at second base during the regular season. Schoop was league average at zero runs saved. He’s the better defender before factoring in the injury.
Baldelli could always pinch-hit the lefty hitting Arraez against a tough righty in the late innings —Adam Ottavinoin particular is susceptible to lefties — and leverage his bat that way. Otherwise, Schoop is the better option, especially with Dobnak and his ground ball ability on the mound. Don’t count on the Twins changing their Game 2 lineup, so consider this a first guess.
“We worked him out pretty good (Wednesday),” Baldelli said. “If he had a regular week of work, would he be making a better throw on the double play? Who knows. There’s really no way to know that.”
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