Boris Johnson secured changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration with the European Union and is now fighting to get his Brexit deal over the line, with the historic vote in the House of Commons scheduled for Saturday. Government whips are working to get the Prime Minister’s plan ratified by Parliament and have calculated it will pass – IF they can persuade enough Labor MPs, and the Tory rebels to back it. There are 650 MPs in Westminster. Of these, Sinn Fein’s seven members do not vote, and nor does Speaker John Bercow or his three deputies. Neither are the votes of the four vote tellers – two Conservative MPs in favor, two Labor MPs against – included in the overall result.
This means the Government will need at least 320 votes to be certain of a majority.
Assuming every Conservative MP who is able to vote backs the deal, this gives the Government 287 votes – short of a majority.
The Tory rebels, who lost the Conservative whip over trying to block no deal, are expected to support the agreement.
Speaking on BBC’s Newsnight, Nicholas Soames, said: “My quarrel with the Prime Minister was over nothing except no deal.
Boris Johnson could h ave the numbers to get him over the line(Image: GETTY)
Jeremy Corbyn has said Labor will not back the deal, but up to 10 rebels could(Image: GETTY)
My quarrel with the prime minister was over nothing except no deal
Nicholas Soames
“And so it’s a deal, and I will vote for it, and so will many of my colleagues of the people who had the whip taken away from them because that is what we all want. ”
Former Tory Justice Minister David Guake has also confirmed he will back the Prime Minister’s de al in the Commons on Saturday.
In total, there are currently 23 former Conservative MPs who currently sit as independents.
With Mr Gyimah now a Lib Dem, and Ms Rudd, who resigned, included in the rebels who could side with the Prime Minister and vote for the deal, the Prime Minister would need to find an extra votes to see his deal pass.
John Mann, the Labor MP for Bassetlaw, has said “more than 9” MPs will vote for the Prime Minister’s Brexit agreement, which could give Mr Johnson enough.
There were five Labor MPs who voted on March 29 for Theresa May’s version of the Withdrawal Agreement: Kevin Barron, Rosie Cooper, Jim Fitzpatrick, Caroline Flint and John Mann.
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Boris Johnson secured a fresh agreement with the EU (Image: GETTY)
A small handful of other Labor MPs have also said they might consider backing Mr Johnson’s deal, such as Ronnie Campbell and Graham Stringer, though again the precise number is uncertain.
Labor MP Ronnie Campbell, who is standing down at the next election, said “at the moment “he would vote to support the deal.
But he told the BBC:” I am getting a lot of pressure from the head lads of the Labor Party … to abstain. “
Labor MP Gloria De Piero wr ote on Twitter: “My constituent Graham Norman just came to my surgery. He is a lifelong Unite member who voted Leave. He begged me to vote for a deal tomorrow. I haven’t decided what I’ll do but when I look at some people’s comments on Twitter calling people like him a Tory – I despair. ”
Amber Rudd has said she is not sure if she will back the vote(Image: GETTY)
Outside of the Tory rebels, there are a further 10 independent MPs , of which the Prime Minister is hoping to get gain some votes, which could be enough to get him over the line.
Among the Independents, two former Labor MPs backed Mrs May’s deal – Ian Austin and Frank Field – along with the former Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd and the Independent MP Sylvia Hermon.
If all Conservative MPs, the 23 former Tory MPs who now sit as independents and a combination of more than 10 Labor MPs and sitting independents back the Prime Minister’s deal, then it should be enough to get him over the line.
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But, the DUP have already said they will not back the Prime Minister’s agreement, which could prove fatal to his plans.
Former Conservative Minister Amber Rudd has also suggested she could scupper the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans.
Writing on Twitter, Rudd wrote: “Just finishing surgery Rye. Despite some very challenging personal issues from constituents, everyone asked re debate and vote tomorrow. 50 / 50 for and against PM’s deal.
“Hope PM can speak persuasively and make the case on behalf of the whole country tomorrow, not just the 52 percent. ”
There is also no guarantee every Tory will back Mr Johnson, who desperately needs the votes of the Eurosceptic European Research Group (ERG).
Steve Baker has not said if he will back the agreement(Image: GETTY)
ERG chairman Steve Baker was keeping tight-lipped about whether his group – sometimes nicknamed “the Spartans” for their uncompromising stance on Brexit – would be backing the plan as it stood.
Contacted by Express.co.uk, Mr Baker said he would not be in a position to comment until tomorrow morning.
Iain Duncan-Smith yesterday said there were “issues” with Mr Johnson’s proposals, while Owen Paterson has been publicly critical.
Saturday’s sitting in the House of Commons, the first in 37 years, will see the Prime Minister try to deliver on his Brexit pledges, with the vote on his deal agreed with the EU expected to run very close.
Additional reporting by Ciaran McGrath
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